Amid the growing tensions between China and the Philippines, particularly in the West Philippine Sea, reliance on the United States as our primary military ally is risky for us. While the Mutual Defense Treaty and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) promise support from the US in case of an attack, history shows that such assurances can be unreliable. The Philippines must consider the possibility that the US might prioritize its strategic interests in the event of an actual war, leaving us to bear the brunt of the conflict. We need only look at recent events in Ukraine and Afghanistan to understand how alliances with the US have failed to meet expectations in times of need.
In Ukraine, despite repeated promises of military and financial assistance, the US has not engaged directly in the war against Russia. While aid has been substantial, it falls short of decisive military intervention that would end the conflict swiftly. The situation exposes the limitations of American involvement—supporting from a distance while avoiding confrontation with another global power. Similarly, in Afghanistan, the US abruptly ended its 20-year military presence, abandoning the country to the Taliban. This raises serious concerns about how dependable the US would be in our time of greatest need, especially when facing a formidable adversary like China.
One of the key concerns is that the US might view any conflict between the Philippines and China as a regional issue, not worthy of full-scale intervention. The US, like any other nation, will act in its own best interests, and it’s unclear whether risking a direct war with China—an economic powerhouse and nuclear power—would align with those interests. Even if the US does intervene, it might be limited to economic sanctions or diplomatic efforts rather than committing ground forces or engaging in combat operations. The recent pullback of American forces from regions they once promised to defend signals that we cannot take their assurances for granted.
Given this uncertainty, the Philippines must explore alternatives to relying solely on the US. Diplomatic engagement with China, while difficult, might be a more sustainable approach. Though China’s aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea are troubling, we may be better served by focusing on de-escalation and diplomacy, using international institutions and regional alliances like ASEAN to broker compromises. At the very least, these strategies could buy us time to strengthen our military defenses and reduce our vulnerability to external pressures.
Ultimately, the risk of abandonment by the US in a potential war with China should serve as a wake-up call. We cannot depend solely on promises made by a foreign power with its own agenda. While it’s important to maintain strategic alliances, we must also recognize the need to stand on our own feet and develop long-term strategies that prioritize our national interest. Whether through diplomatic negotiations, military self-sufficiency, or regional partnerships, the Philippines must chart its path in dealing with China’s growing influence.
